Probabilidades de cada selección de ganar el Mundial 2026 y de alcanzar cada fase del torneo según el modelo de simulación de Cadiznoticias basado en clasificación Elo.
Las probabilidades mostradas en esta página proceden de 10.000 simulaciones completas del Mundial 2026 realizadas por el modelo estadístico de Cadiznoticias. Para estimar la fuerza de cada selección se utilizan las puntuaciones Elo, un sistema empleado internacionalmente para medir el nivel de los equipos nacionales a partir de sus resultados y de la entidad de sus rivales.
El modelo calcula las probabilidades de victoria, empate y derrota de cada encuentro pendiente y recrea el torneo completo miles de veces, respetando los resultados reales que ya se han disputado. Tras cada partido, la valoración Elo de las selecciones se actualiza, de forma que el rendimiento mostrado durante el campeonato influye en sus opciones en las rondas posteriores.
El porcentaje de campeón indica en cuántas simulaciones una selección terminó levantando el trofeo. Del mismo modo, los porcentajes de final, semifinales, cuartos de final, octavos de final y dieciseisavos representan la probabilidad de que el equipo alcance, al menos, cada una de esas rondas.
| Pos | Selección | Campeón | Subcampeón | Final | Semifinales | Cuartos | Octavos | Dieciseisavos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | España | 25.35% | 13.29% | 38.64% | 54.01% | 73.85% | 89.32% | 99.72% |
| 2 | Argentina | 16.73% | 12.59% | 29.32% | 43.37% | 58.83% | 84.85% | 98.13% |
| 3 | Francia | 11.59% | 9.43% | 21.02% | 36.97% | 53.25% | 76.56% | 95.63% |
| 4 | Inglaterra | 6.90% | 6.14% | 13.04% | 27.68% | 46.73% | 73.34% | 97.29% |
| 5 | Brasil | 4.99% | 5.10% | 10.09% | 18.76% | 43.31% | 72.40% | 95.84% |
| 6 | Portugal | 4.90% | 5.68% | 10.58% | 23.68% | 45.32% | 70.26% | 92.77% |
| 7 | Colombia | 4.73% | 5.61% | 10.34% | 22.81% | 43.45% | 68.84% | 92.07% |
| 8 | Ecuador | 2.63% | 3.99% | 6.62% | 13.17% | 34.70% | 65.09% | 96.11% |
| 9 | Países Bajos | 2.54% | 3.35% | 5.89% | 12.93% | 23.32% | 52.91% | 91.57% |
| 10 | Alemania | 2.29% | 3.23% | 5.52% | 12.28% | 33.74% | 63.86% | 96.18% |
| 11 | Noruega | 2.17% | 2.99% | 5.16% | 12.90% | 24.65% | 49.62% | 82.31% |
| 12 | Croacia | 2.11% | 2.89% | 5.00% | 12.82% | 27.86% | 51.98% | 91.05% |
| 13 | Uruguay | 1.63% | 2.78% | 4.41% | 10.11% | 26.98% | 50.77% | 91.10% |
| 14 | Turquía | 1.59% | 2.76% | 4.35% | 10.58% | 20.34% | 53.84% | 84.35% |
| 15 | Japón | 1.43% | 2.28% | 3.71% | 9.36% | 18.39% | 44.82% | 88.02% |
| 16 | Senegal | 1.20% | 2.02% | 3.22% | 8.30% | 17.08% | 38.93% | 74.38% |
| 17 | Suiza | 1.18% | 2.22% | 3.40% | 10.16% | 25.08% | 56.90% | 97.26% |
| 18 | Bélgica | 1.11% | 1.80% | 2.91% | 7.12% | 20.38% | 37.88% | 92.05% |
| 19 | México | 0.93% | 2.12% | 3.05% | 8.40% | 19.85% | 41.00% | 92.46% |
| 20 | Paraguay | 0.77% | 1.22% | 1.99% | 5.60% | 12.43% | 40.51% | 73.88% |
| 21 | Marruecos | 0.55% | 1.13% | 1.68% | 4.60% | 16.05% | 37.94% | 80.74% |
| 22 | Austria | 0.52% | 1.13% | 1.65% | 4.55% | 11.24% | 34.83% | 70.90% |
| 23 | Canadá | 0.31% | 0.77% | 1.08% | 3.92% | 12.87% | 37.23% | 91.80% |
| 24 | Escocia | 0.29% | 0.66% | 0.95% | 2.67% | 9.71% | 26.95% | 71.84% |
| 25 | Australia | 0.28% | 0.62% | 0.90% | 2.66% | 7.48% | 28.62% | 62.52% |
| 26 | Estados Unidos | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.47% | 1.54% | 4.75% | 21.06% | 52.64% |
| 27 | Argelia | 0.16% | 0.56% | 0.72% | 2.22% | 6.06% | 21.17% | 56.10% |
| 28 | República Checa | 0.15% | 0.42% | 0.57% | 2.27% | 6.94% | 20.07% | 75.56% |
| 29 | Corea del Sur | 0.13% | 0.48% | 0.61% | 2.63% | 8.18% | 22.87% | 78.57% |
| 30 | Panamá | 0.11% | 0.36% | 0.47% | 1.91% | 6.95% | 18.94% | 65.19% |
| 31 | Irán | 0.10% | 0.55% | 0.65% | 2.15% | 7.89% | 19.37% | 79.31% |
| 32 | Egipto | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 0.82% | 4.08% | 12.17% | 65.69% |
| 33 | Uzbekistán | 0.08% | 0.42% | 0.50% | 1.83% | 5.85% | 18.11% | 46.98% |
| 34 | Costa de Marfil | 0.08% | 0.20% | 0.28% | 1.09% | 5.10% | 19.03% | 67.22% |
| 35 | Suecia | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.32% | 1.33% | 4.05% | 13.66% | 54.34% |
| 36 | Jordania | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.73% | 2.51% | 11.52% | 37.81% |
| 37 | Cabo Verde | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.18% | 0.86% | 4.69% | 29.14% |
| 38 | RD Congo | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.66% | 2.56% | 10.88% | 32.94% |
| 39 | Irak | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.28% | 1.04% | 4.59% | 18.58% |
| 40 | Túnez | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.36% | 1.27% | 5.90% | 33.57% |
| 41 | Nueva Zelanda | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.61% | 3.28% | 33.41% |
| 42 | Bosnia y Herzegovina | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.25% | 1.84% | 9.65% | 57.93% |
| 43 | Catar | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 1.32% | 18.23% |
| 44 | Haití | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.70% | 3.30% | 22.02% |
| 45 | Arabia Saudí | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 1.07% | 4.26% | 26.41% |
| 46 | Ghana | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.29% | 1.57% | 14.64% |
| 47 | Curazao | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.86% | 9.79% |
| 48 | Sudáfrica | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.33% | 2.48% | 23.96% |